Improving outcomes for children in out‐of‐home care: the role of therapeutic foster care

How best to support children and young people in foster care remains a challenge for child welfare. There has been little Australian research on the outcomes for children and young people placed in therapeutic foster care (TFC). This article aims to address this knowledge gap, presenting the evaluation of a state‐wide model of TFC known as the Circle Program operating in Victoria, Australia. Data sources for the study were case assessment analysis; surveys of foster carers, program workers and other stakeholders in the sector; and both focus groups and individual interviews with foster care workers. The evaluation found that the Circle Program lessened the number of unplanned exits of children from foster placements compared with generalist foster care. Another important finding was that the Circle Program positively influenced foster carers' decisions to stay in the carer role. Key components perceived as contributing to outcomes of the Circle Program included enhanced training of foster carers, intensive carer support, specialist therapeutic support to the child and carer, therapeutic service to family members and a network of services to provide support to the child.     

Statistical inference for the Gompertz distribution based on Type-II progressively hybrid censored data

In this article, the statistical inference for the Gompertz distribution based on Type-II progressively hybrid censored data is discussed. The estimation of the parameters for Gompertz distribution is obtained using maximum likelihood method (MLE) and Bayesian method under three different loss functions. We also proved the existence and uniqueness of the MLE. The one-sample Bayesian prediction intervals are obtained. The work is done for different values of the parameters. We apply the Monto Carlo simulation to compare the proposed methods, also an example is discussed to construct the Prediction intervals.     

The performance of model averaged tail area confidence intervals

We investigate the exact coverage and expected length properties of the model averaged tail area (MATA) confidence interval proposed by Turek and Fletcher, CSDA, 2012, in the context of two nested, normal linear regression models. The simpler model is obtained by applying a single linear constraint on the regression parameter vector of the full model. For given length of response vector and nominal coverage of the MATA confidence interval, we consider all possible models of this type and all possible true parameter values, together with a wide class of design matrices and parameters of interest. Our results show that, while not ideal, MATA confidence intervals perform surprisingly well in our regression scenario, provided that we use the minimum weight within the class of weights that we consider on the simpler model.     

Health Care innovation and children in poverty: lived experiences of caregivers of children with disabilities in a medicaid-serving ACO

This paper reports the results of a qualitative study of caregivers of children with disabilities enrolled in a Medicaid-serving accountable care organization (ACO). The state of Ohio mandated ACO enrollment for Medicaid-eligible children with disabilities in 34 of 88 counties effective July 2013. Research participants were queried in focus groups and individual interviews about their children’s care experiences and care coordination after enrollment. Most told researchers that they themselves are their children’s care coordinators, and many indicated that resource scarcity is a more pressing problem than fragmented care. Data analysis identified a theme of scarcity and four categories of insufficiency that made caregiver efforts on behalf of their children more difficult: a lack of health services under managed care, resource constraints on other agencies and programs for which families were eligible, a lack of financial support, and a lack of family support. A conceptual framework places ACO care coordination among more upstream factors and identifies ways in which ACOs serving Medicaid populations may wish to address the social determinants of the well-being of children with disabilities. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Developing critical and empathic capabilities in intercultural education through the VaKE approach

One of the core goals of intercultural education is to develop critical and empathic reflection on social justice, particularly as related to humanistic choices and how individuals can counteract exclusion. The present article analyses the Values and Knowledge Education (VaKE) approach, which is aimed at raising awareness about implicit value-oriented priorities in decision-making. Through the Human Development and Capability Approach, the applicability of VaKE’s didactic principles is analysed in relation to young people’s perspectives on resettlement in Europe. The VaKE method was used at a 2013 summer camp in Austria with a culturally diverse group of young Europeans who were presented with a dilemma story that highlighted the complex issue of providing assistance to asylum seekers. The participants engaged in various knowledge and moral viability checks that enabled them to engage with opposing arguments. The participants evidenced critical reflection and self-scrutiny, as well as affiliation and empathic imagination, regarding problems that are encountered by asylum seekers.     

基于复杂网络的电动汽车充电桩众筹市场信用风险建模与分析

因其经济优势及环境友好特性，电动汽车（EV）保有量持续攀升。而当前中国充电设施建设明显滞后于电动汽车的扩张速度，成为制约电动车发展潜力的主要瓶颈。由于充电设施具有高正外部性，同时投资回收期较长，难以吸引到传统融资，而基于互联网的众筹作为新型融资方式则受到了广泛关注。但由于缺乏强制性的信息披露制度及相关法律法规，众筹融资过程中的信息不对称问题相较传统融资方式更为严重，由此导致的高违约率也进一步削弱了投资者信心。本文利用复杂网络对电动汽车充电桩众筹融资市场进行建模，刻画了众筹投资者决策过程中的羊群效应，基于信息不对称使用多Agent模型对信用风险的产生、影响及针对性政策效果进行了模拟分析。结果表明，众筹投资者在决策过程中易受到社交网络中负面信息的影响，使得筹资人违约行为的不利影响进一步扩散。而严格的罚款机制可以在不影响融资市场均衡的情况下，使违约行为的恶性循环得到遏制。     

开放经济下OFDI对产业结构升级效应及传导路径

开放经济下对外直接投资(OFDI)已成为我国融入世界经济的主要途径,在优化产业结构、推进经济转型等方面扮演着重要角色。根据OFDI与产业结构升级及传导路径的互动机理分析,在对安徽省OFDI投资概况和产业结构现状进行分析的基础上,选取2003—2017年相关数据为样本构建VAR模型,运用ADF检验、脉冲响应函数等方法从产业结构总水平角度,实证分析得出短期内安徽省OFDI所能带来的产业结构升级效应并不显著的结论。进而从具体传导路径角度,采用主成分分析法,从10个变量中提取主成分构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应等方法实证分析得出安徽省OFDI可通过贸易、省内投资、就业和技术路径来促进产业结构升级。为此,安徽省应扩大OFDI规模,提升OFDI质量和效益;增强企业竞争实力和科技创新能力,优化对外投资结构;发挥政府宏观调控和政策引导作用,加大对企业的扶持力度。     

Model selection for factor analysis: Some new criteria and performance comparisons

This paper derives Akaike information criterion (AIC), corrected AIC, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and Hannan and Quinn’s information criterion for approximate factor models assuming a large number of cross-sectional observations and studies the consistency properties of these information criteria. It also reports extensive simulation results comparing the performance of the extant and new procedures for the selection of the number of factors. The simulation results show the di?culty of determining which criterion performs best. In practice, it is advisable to consider several criteria at the same time, especially Hannan and Quinn’s information criterion, Bai and Ng’s IC_p2 and BIC₃, and Onatski’s and Ahn and Horenstein’s eigenvalue-based criteria. The model-selection criteria considered in this paper are also applied to Stock and Watson’s two macroeconomic data sets. The results differ considerably depending on the model-selection criterion in use, but evidence suggesting five factors for the first data and five to seven factors for the second data is obtainable.     

Applying the Housing First approach to single-site permanent supportive housing

This study explored how the U.S. Departments of Housing and Urban Development-Veterans Affairs Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) program applies Housing First principles in the context of ten single-site programs. Focus group discussions with 64 HUD-VASH staff and community partners explored how the programs were influenced by Housing First principles and specific strategies to implement these principles in a single-site setting. Focus group respondents described resourceful ways that the principles of Housing First were implemented in their programs specifically related to (1) housing choice and structure, (2) separation of housing and services, (3) service philosophy, and (4) service array. Several of the Housing First domains cite the importance of integrated housing and the provision of services off-site; it was of particular interest to learn how single-site programs address these issues logistically. Lessons learned from this study include the importance of leveraging the independent yet overlapping tasks of case management and property management to ensure functional – if not geographic – separation of housing and services; maintaining staff on-site to address Veterans’ needs; working with community service organizations to complement the array of service available to residents; and housing single-site programs in mixed-use buildings.